My predictions for last weekend ended up in the right order, but a little off on all accounts.
Here were the predictions:
1. Super 8 (N) -- $33.5 million
2. X-Men: First Class (LW 1) -- $27 million
3. The Hangover Part II (LW 2) -- $14 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (LW 3) -- $13.5 million
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (LW 4) -- $9 million
And here were the actuals for the weekend:
1. Super 8 (N) -- $35,451,168
2. X-Men: First Class (LW 1) -- $24,128,986 [$98,023,335 through 10 days]
3. The Hangover Part II (LW 2) -- $17,667,329 [$215,727,461 through 18 days -- passing Fast Five as the highest grossing film of 2011]
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (LW 3) -- $16,543,166 [126,813,240 through 18 days]
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (LW 4) -- $10,945,764 [$208,873,258 through 24 days]
So my first weekend of predictions were overall pretty on. Super 8 actually did a few million more than I projected, but its $37 million is the lowest opening weekend since Thor on May 13-15. Considering the discrepancy between the production budgets of those two films, however, Super 8 will certainly be a successful film domestically. With a few loaded weekends coming up and being just ahead of a few franchise films that still have some steam, the film will probably not be a complete smash that some may have projected. But, with its positive critical buzz and the appearance of being a family film with its nostalgic glaze, it will have some legs for the rest of the month. Considering that, my prediction for Super 8's domestic gross will be $94 million.
Later this week look out for a dissection of Super 8's performance in terms of the classic Amblin films that it hoped to bank on.
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