Inside the Numbers: Super 8 and Amblin Entertainment

To anyone my age, Amblin Entertainment is a synonym for "nostalgia."  Steven Spielberg's production company has been involved in some of the most loved films of the 1980s, but as Super 8 has reminded everyone, they are still around!

Some of the most interesting critical debate stems around whether Super 8 is just a knock-off of old Spielberg films, with the term "nostalgia porn" quickly becoming a part of the cultural lexicon.  In honor of this debate, I decided looking closely into the box office numbers of the best and worst Amblin films in comparison to Super 8 would be worthwhile.  The film obviously was trying to bank on 20-somethings coming to the theaters and bringing their kids along to share the memories that they had with their families when first seeing E.T.  But what do the numbers tell us?

	Budget	Opening Weekend	Overall Gross	Adjusted Gross
E.T.	$10.50	$11,835,389	$359,197,037	$800,673,436
Gremlins	N/A	$12,511,634	$148,168,459	$306,841,737
The Goonies	N/A	$9,105,913	$61,389,680	$122,714,048
Back to the Future	$19	$11,152,500	$210,609,762	$420,995,458
Arachnophobia	N/A	$8,045,760	$53,208,180	$87,617,479
Jurassic Park	$63	$47,026,828	$357,067,947	$531,889,049
Super 8	$50	$35,451,168	XXX	XXX

It may not be fair to match Super 8 with some of these classics, but there are some interesting numbers here.  If I were to ask you whether you think Super 8 or The Goonies would have a higher gross (adjusted), I imagine you would say Super 8, easily, but that might not be the case.  Although it is certainly too soon to tell if Super 8 will ultimately be a success, if it comes close to the $94 million I projected, it would barely scrape by Arachnophobia's adjusted gross (in 2010 dollars).  I don't know about you, but I wouldn't consider that to be a shining success.

Yes, the film will be a success in terms of its production budget -- it should eclipse that by next week.  But considering the movies that it idolizes and mimics, it won't come close.  This is partly because of movie-going trends today -- mainly, there are more big films out to spread around.  In 1982, E.T. more than doubled the gross of its nearest competitor, while only five films grossed $100 that year (adjusted to $222,906,470 in 2010). 

There may also be a deeper discussion here about nostalgia films and how they perform.  There are recent examples which that banking on an audience's nostalgia may not always translate into incredible success.  The prime example is Spike Jonze's Where the Wild Things Are, which made $77 million against a $100 production budget.  Although not quite as direct an homage, Paul also made less domestically than its budget.  Super 8 has already shown it will be more successful than those films, but it may become part of an increasing trend showing that the things we are nostalgic for will be more successful than the art it directly inspires.

Box Office Hobo: Weekend Report, June 10-12

My predictions for last weekend ended up in the right order, but a little off on all accounts.

Here were the predictions:
   1. Super 8 (N) -- $33.5 million
   2. X-Men: First Class (LW 1) -- $27 million
   3. The Hangover Part II (LW 2) -- $14 million
   4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (LW 3) -- $13.5 million
   5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (LW 4) -- $9 million

And here were the actuals for the weekend:
   1. Super 8 (N) -- $35,451,168
   2. X-Men: First Class (LW 1) -- $24,128,986 [$98,023,335 through 10 days]
   3. The Hangover Part II (LW 2) -- $17,667,329 [$215,727,461 through 18 days -- passing Fast Five as the highest grossing film of 2011]
   4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (LW 3) -- $16,543,166 [126,813,240 through 18 days]
   5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (LW 4) -- $10,945,764 [$208,873,258 through 24 days]

So my first weekend of predictions were overall pretty on.  Super 8 actually did a few million more than I projected, but its $37 million is the lowest opening weekend since Thor on May 13-15.  Considering the discrepancy between the production budgets of those two films, however, Super 8 will certainly be a successful film domestically.  With a few loaded weekends coming up and being just ahead of a few franchise films that still have some steam, the film will probably not be a complete smash that some may have projected.  But, with its positive critical buzz and the appearance of being a family film with its nostalgic glaze, it will have some legs for the rest of the month.  Considering that, my prediction for Super 8's domestic gross will be $94 million.

Later this week look out for a dissection of Super 8's performance in terms of the classic Amblin films that it hoped to bank on.

Box Office Hobo (P)review: June 10-12

Weekend 23 of the year 2011 opens with one of the most anticipated films of the summer that may not be a box office smash.  Super 8 is a film that is hard for me to gauge.  Much like many non-super hero "nerd" films, I personally hear so much about it from friends and on the internet that I become lost in thinking that it may perform well.  I think Super 8 will open number one this weekend, but its overall performance will probably not be as high as most the openings from this summer.

Also debuting this weekend is the film Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer.  I just wanted to make sure I mentioned it because it won't finish close to the top 5.

Here are the predictions:
   1. Super 8 (N) -- $33.5 million
   2. X-Men: First Class (LW 1) -- $27 million
   3. The Hangover Part II (LW 2) -- $14 million
   4. Kung Fu Panda 2 (LW 3) -- $13.5 million
   5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (LW 4) -- $9 million


And the answer to Thursday Trivia!  That is, of course, The Dark Knight!  53.2% of its overall earnings came from the US -- so good job guys!  It did so well domestically compared to internationally that it drops from the #3 all-time domestic to #7 on the international list, being jumped by the likes of Alice in Wonderland (bright and shiny) and Toy Story 3 (also bright and shiny).

Thursday Trivia: Domestic vs. World-Wide

With the crazy success of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, I thought my first Thursday Trivia piece could highlight world-wide gross in terms of what makes a movie truly successful.

Through Wednesday, June 8, Pirates has grossed a respectable $196 million domestically, but with its $250 million production budget, it still has a lot of work to do to reach that total.  But, because of its world-wide take, it has already become a humungous hit -- with $615 million currently and a shot of grossing a billion world-wide.  Currently, it is the highest grossing film of the year by a wide margin, with Fast Five #2 at $574 million ($203 domestically).

In the US, we obviously prioritize hits in terms of domestic box office, but most mega-hits and franchise films do a staggering amount of their business overseas.  In fact, of the all-time world-wide (non-adjusted) gross, there is only one film in the top 30 that had more than 50% of their box office coming from American dollars.  And most of the numbers aren't even close.  Of the top 5 world-wide grosses, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (#4 on the list) had the highest percentage of domestic box office at only 39.7% -- the others are Avatar (27.3% -- over $2 billion just overseas), Titanic (32.6% -- 1.2 billion overseas), Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (33.7%) and Toy Story 3 (39%).

As of now, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is #28 even though it has grossed as much overseas as many of the films ahead of it.  It's putrid 24.2% of domestic take shows exactly how much importance studios put on marketing to our neighbors across the oceans.

So, really, if you want to blame Hollywood for make so many adaptations, sequels and loud, stupid blockbusters, stop blaming Middle America.  Because foreign populations naturally aren't going to be as attracted to small dramas or character pieces, the studios are going to drive out these films that can do well in a world-wide market.

Here's your trivia question for the week:  I mentioned that only one film in the top 30 all-time world-wide grosses made more than 50% of their overall gross domestically.  NAME IT (in the comments below)!

Inside the Numbers: Failing the Class

It remains to be seen if good reviews and audience word-of-mouth saves X-Men: First Class, but with the biggest summer releases only a few weeks away, the poor opening weekend may prove doom for the franchise.

In breaking down First Class, the easiest comparisons to make are within its own franchise, and the comparisons aren't very good.  Of the five X-Men films released (including X-Men Origins: Wolverine), First Class had the second lowest opening weekend, although it barely beat out X-Men (2000) by less than a million dollars while opening in 600 more theaters.  And, of course, considering adjusted gross, First Class was beaten badly.  In fact, the film opened in roughly the same amount of theaters as the most profitable X-Men film, The Last Stand (2006), which opened at 102 million and grossed 234 million over its run -- numbers that First Class won't come close to, even though The Last Stand is often regarded as the worst of the "traditional" X-Men films (Origins excluded).

In terms of difference versus production budget, First Class is the second most expensive X-Men film ($160 million estimated), which doesn't help soften its opening failure.  Not surprisingly, the highest grossing film was also the most expensive, although The Last Stand was made for a staggering $210 million, therefore scraping by its cost with domestic take.  The closest comparison would be Origins: Wolverine, which opened at 85 mil. and grossed $179.8 and is considered an anomaly of a success.

Origins: Wolverine may also be a big part of the reason for the failure of X-Men: First Class.  Critically, Wolverine was pounded as the type of bloated summer excess that the worst super hero films have become.  And while it's audience numbers aren't nearly as bad on sites like IMDb or Rotten Tomatoes, by all accounts the cultural perception of that film is not positive.  We have seen another film this summer (Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides) that has done slightly lower domestic numbers critically as the franchise has been receiving diminishing praise, so this is something that could have been expected.

The problem is, though, that X-Men: First Class is a very different film than X-Men Origins: Wolverine, and its positive reviews may help it recover in the long-run -- but it may also strangely be working against it.  Compared to the other films in the franchise and other recent super hero films, the marketing and trailers for First Class have tried to set it apart as a moody period piece.  Although there is certainly a lot of action in the trailers and in the film, it doesn't compare to the popcorn fun that Wolverine was promising (I mean, the dude is launched at an in-flight helicopter, for crying out loud!).  More still, there are no costumes -- an obvious part of super hero lore.  It also is explicitly missing one of the most important components to the franchise: the character of Wolverine.  Knowing that one particular part of the team could branch off of the series and be the center of a successful film, without him, it is not unreasonable to think you are starting at a disadvantage.

At the beginning of the summer, I predicted X-Men: First Class to open at around $75 million dollars and to finish at $189, which would have made it third overall in the series.  Now, it may have to struggle to not be the lowest grosser, needing just over $100 million more to edge out the original X-Men.  Although it can certainly do that, and I hope it does, my guess is that it is going to fall somewhere short of that, around $135 million at the end of the summer.

Box Office Hobo: Weekend Report, June 3-5

The first weekend of June was won by X-Men: First Class, but was it really a win?

Here is the top-5 breakdown:
   1. X-Men: First Class (N) -- $55,101,604
   2. The Hangover Part II (LW 1) -- $31,381,234 [$185,808,194 through 11 days]
   3. Kung Fu Panda 2 (LW 2) -- $23,887,914 [$100,028,372 through 11 days]
   4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (LW 3) -- $17,954,603 [$190,200,880 through 17 days]
   5. Bridesmaids (LW 4) -- $12,040,875 [$107,167,230 through 24 days]

With only one new major release, there is no denying that X-Men performed very poorly despite overwhelmingly positive reviews.  This is the second comic book inspired super-hero film released this summer, and neither have performed up to what many would have predicted.  Thor may have a good foreign take, but eclipsed its production budget only last weekend.  And although X-Men may be slightly less accessible being a period piece that emphasizes character over action, the success of the franchise should have lead to bigger numbers.

To me, there are three major take-aways from the weekend.  First, it could very well be true that super hero films across the board will under-perform.  There are still two major super hero films yet to come out this summer, and two very important and heavily-marketed ones at that.  I've expected Green Lantern to be the highest grossing comic adaptation this summer, so there may still yet be hope, but I think the question over middle-America finally being over the film craze is a legitimate one.  Lasting success and more projects is all up to The Avengers, but with Matthew Vaughn saying the new X-Men films were envisioned as a prequel trilogy, sequels for Thor and Iron Man already announced and projects like a Daredevil reboot in the works, have we started to see the tipping point emerge already?

Secondly, and briefly, X-Men: First Class is one of the few big action films this summer that did not have the benefit of a 3D surcharge.  This certainly could have helped it earn $15-20 more million at the gate, which would have softened its failure.  Yet, Fast Five showed that you don't need the surcharge to create a hit.

Thirdly, the poor performance of X-Men and the continued success of The Hangover also bring the age-old question of whether reviews help box-office into play once again.  Although reviews began to taper off a bit toward the end of the weekend, First Class still has received very high marks, especially compared to a lot of critical bile for The Hangover.  Comedies, of course, tend to be critic proof, since humor is incredibly subjective and tend people don't typically look at them critically other than "did I laugh?"  Because people are laughing at The Hangover, no matter how creatively bankrupt the film is, word-of-mouth is still going to be positive.

Stay tuned later this week for a closer look at the business of X-Men: First Class in comparison to its predecessors.

The Wonderful World of Box Office

As a movie fan and (what I would consider) an intelligent watcher of film, box office shouldn't be important to me.  In fact, it should be anti-important.  Art has no business in business, right?

Truth be told, it's often hard to side with the money side of the movie making industry.  Movie people should identify with the filmmakers, not "the suits."  It's not unreasonable to say that most studio executives are more interested in making a product that makes them a lot of money than they are about making a product that we be merely highly regarded.  Not to mention that there are far too many stories told about studios intervening in the artistic process with too much empirical evidence that this never helps beyond the bottom line.

So then, why should someone who is interested in the art of filmmaking care about box office?  Mostly, one shouldn't, but I think there are a lot of interesting stories to tell in the statistics.  Trying to see why one movie succeeds while another fails and looking at the bigger sociological pictures does have some merit.  And, of course, simply surfing around a site like Box Office Mojo can lead to some really amazing and fun trivia about the world of movie business.

So sit back and take in this every-once-in-a-while-blog!